Drop rate calculator
Chance of at least one drop by now
85.8%
You're 2.0× the drop rate. Only 14.2% of players would still be without it.
- Expected drops so far: 1.95
- Kills for a 50% chance: 355
- Kills for a 90% chance: 1,178
- Kills for a 99% chance: 2,356
The maths
Each kill is an independent roll, so the chance of no drop after n kills at 1/r is (1 − 1/r)^n. At exactly the drop rate you have about a 63% chance of at least one; around one player in three is still dry.